In recent months, Donald Trump's United States has stepped up economic pressure on Cuba. The result is a dramatic humanitarian crisis.
On 16 March, Cuba's national electricity grid collapsed. Power outages across the country had in fact been growing increasingly frequent since the start of 2026, but the situation now appears to have reached a point of no return. This is also the result of the pressure exerted by Donald Trump's United States.
The White House has threatened tariffs against any country that sells oil to Cuba, creating a fuel deficit that is upending every aspect of daily life on the island. Transport is paralysed, the electricity grid is collapsing, food is scarce and unaffordably priced, and tourism is in freefall. The UN has warned that Cuba risks "humanitarian collapse", and in recent weeks there have been the first protests by the population — in a country where dissent has historically been punished. This has increased pressure on the government, which has announced it has begun negotiations with the United States.
The United States military operation in Venezuela, which led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and a diplomatic rapprochement between Caracas and Washington, has had very serious consequences for Cuba. The socialist state had in Venezuela its principal regional ally, and relations between the two countries were also very strong from a commercial standpoint, particularly with regard to oil. Cuba does produce oil, but this covers only 40 per cent of its needs. This is why Venezuelan oil has always been a pillar of the Cuban economy and of the island's (fragile) stability — constantly challenged by the decisions of the local authoritarian government and by US sanctions imposed since 1959, when the revolution took place.
In response to the nationalisation of US-owned properties on the island by the Castro regime, President John F. Kennedy imposed a total embargo that had significant repercussions on an economy heavily dependent on imports from the United States. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington introduced new sanctions and threatened third countries that traded with the island, which had lost its main commercial partner but had, precisely during that period, forged closer ties with Venezuela. It was US President Barack Obama who, from 2014 onwards, pursued a policy of détente with Cuba and eased some sanctions — but then, with the inauguration of Donald Trump, relations once again became strained. Cuba continued to rely on Venezuela and other countries more hostile to the United States for its survival, but with the arrival of 2026 the situation on the island became dramatic.
US President Donald Trump has launched a diplomatic offensive against Cuba. The island was declared an "unusual and extraordinary threat", prompting Washington to announce tariffs against countries — such as Venezuela and Mexico — historically engaged in trade with Havana. The result is that these countries have effectively stopped exporting to Cuba, plunging it into a disastrous economic and social situation. This appears to be precisely Donald Trump's objective: he has envisioned an economic collapse that must be followed by the fall of the regime — apparently, and unlike with Venezuela and Iran, without military intervention.
The halt to oil imports from Venezuela and Mexico has upended everyday life in Cuba. Caracas had been covering 35 per cent of the island's needs, while Mexican wells accounted for a further 20 per cent. Since the start of the year, only two tankers have arrived on the island — one from Mexico and one from Jamaica — forcing the country to rely solely on its domestic production, which, as noted, is entirely unable to meet energy demand. Output stands at around 40,000 barrels of oil per day against a requirement of over 100,000, and even though efforts have been made in recent weeks to increase extraction, the situation has not improved.
The Cuban government has imposed a series of emergency measures to address the situation. Public transport services have been cut, a number of university classes have been moved online, the working week for public sector employees has been shortened, some tourist resorts have been closed, and international airlines have been informed that they must land in Cuba with enough fuel to depart again, as refuelling on the island would not be possible. Several airlines have cancelled or reduced flights to Havana, with a significant impact on one of the pillars of the Cuban economy: tourism. The fuel shortage has also led to electricity rationing, and as the weeks have passed, blackouts — lasting up to twenty consecutive hours — have grown increasingly frequent, culminating in the total grid collapse of 16 March.
This situation has placed further strain on an already very fragile economy, with GDP having contracted by 15 per cent since 2020, losing a further 5 per cent in 2025 alone. The local currency — the Cuban peso in which public sector salaries are paid — has depreciated, making it even harder for the population to purchase the scarce stocks of food available. Those who hold dollars, the other currency accepted on the island, are faring somewhat better.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he is "extremely concerned" about the situation in Cuba and warned of the risk of "humanitarian collapse". On 17 March, a European delegation — including MEPs Ilaria Salis and Mimmo Lucano of the Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra — joined the Nuestra América Convoy to Cuba, a humanitarian flotilla bound for Havana to deliver medicines and essential goods to the Cuban people.
In the meantime, in recent weeks the island has seen a surge of protest outbreaks against the government. These are mostly harmless cacerolazos — the banging of pots and pans from homes during blackouts. But in the city of Morón the tension escalated when a group of people stormed the local headquarters of the Communist Party, pelting it with stones and setting fire to barricades built in the street. Police arrested five people, and Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel harshly condemned the episode in a country where freedom of protest and dissent are severely restricted. Díaz-Canel himself also admitted that negotiations with the United States have been launched in an attempt to improve Cuba's dire economic and social situation. More or less in parallel, the government announced the release of 51 political prisoners held in the country's jails, and there is also talk of the possibility for Cubans who have emigrated abroad — at least 2.5 million since 2020 — to own property and businesses on the island.
Small signals of openness towards Washington that mirror those made in January by Venezuela following Maduro's capture. And that appear to genuinely stave off a US military intervention on the island.
