After Italy, Spain too has surpassed China in number of deaths from the coronavirus. It is also the second country in Europe by number of infections. A look at the figures and the measures taken, at how the situation has reached this point, and at the forecasts for the Iberian country.
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When the photographs of the Ifema trade fair complex in Madrid began to arrive — emptied out and refitted with rows of beds ready to receive patients infected with coronavirus (Covid-19) — our minds could not help but leap back to last December. In that very place, in those pavilions, in those corridors that we ourselves walked through, people were then debating, and fighting, over an emergency that threatens all of humanity: the climate. Ifema had, in fact, hosted the 25th United Nations climate change conference (Cop 25), stepping in to help Chile — the host country — which had been forced to cancel the event due to the state of emergency and social unrest it was experiencing.
Today, Madrid and Ifema once again find themselves contributing to the fight against another battle afflicting the world: that against coronavirus.
Read also: All the latest updates on coronavirus
The pandemic striking almost 200 countries around the world, heedless of borders and distances, now has its epicentre in Europe, with Italy as the first country in this crisis, now followed by Spain. It was on 25 March that the news broke that the Iberian country too had surpassed China in number of deaths, recording 738 fatalities on that day and bringing the total to 3,475, before exceeding 4,000 just twenty-four hours later, on 26 March — a day that also saw the first weekly decline in the number of victims. A decline that was quickly overshadowed by a new surge in deaths, which reached the new single-day record since the start of the crisis on 27 March: 769 (Italy's highest was 793).
We are still in a phase of growing impact from the virus, and this will continue for some time yet.Pere Godoy, president of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (See)
"We are still in a phase of growing impact from the virus, and this will continue for some time yet," said Pere Godoy, president of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (See). Spain, in this respect, has only been enforcing restrictive containment measures similar to Italy's for just over a week, and in recent days has recorded rates of growth in infections and consequent deaths that are exponential — even more so than in Italy.
Indeed, as the Spanish daily El País reports, on Monday 23 March Spain recorded its then highest single-day increase in coronavirus deaths: 462, bringing the total to 2,182. This means that from the 1,000 deaths recorded by 20 March, the country took just three days to double the figure. A pace not seen in China or in Italy (which took four days to double its first thousand). On the first day of quarantine, 14 March, the country recorded 6,332 cases of infection; by 25 March the figure stood at 47,610; by 27 March it had reached 57,627. These exponential figures led the government to decide to extend the restrictive quarantine measures until 12 April.
Quarantine on Spanish soil was officially imposed from 14 March, but the first infections date back further. The first official case of Covid-19 in Spain was recorded on 31 January. It involved a German tourist who was in one of the Canary Islands — La Gomera — and had previously been in China. It was therefore classified as an "imported" case, exactly like the second case involving a British tourist in Palma de Mallorca on 9 February who had arrived from France. Similarly, towards the end of February, further cases began to emerge — declared as coming from Italy — in Tenerife, Valencia and Madrid.
On 28 February, however, the first cases of unknown origin were recorded in Madrid and Andalusia — the first sign that the virus was spreading through the country in an uncontrolled manner. With the arrival of March, and helped along by spring weather, life in Spain continued as normal. While Italy's "lockdown" came into effect on 8 March, thousands of Spanish men and women were filling the squares and streets for the historic women's rights march, known as 8-M. A success for the cause, but confirmation that the country was underestimating the imminent public health danger. In figures: on 1 March there were 83 cases; on 8 March, 589 cases; on 9 March, 1,231 — more than double in a single day. This is why magistrate Carmen Rodríguez-Medel stated her intention to open legal proceedings against the government delegate for the Madrid regional community, José Manuel Franco, for having allowed the holding of public events in the region despite the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control calling for their cancellation.
On 9 March, the autonomous community of Madrid declared the closure of schools for 15 days, followed by the regions of the Basque Country, Rioja and Aragón, while the government cancelled all flights arriving from Italy. And yet no further restrictions on public and social venues such as bars and restaurants had been put in place. Eventually, on 13 March, with 4,200 cases and 120 deaths across the country, the government announced a state of alarm — only the second time in the country's democratic history (the first being in 2010 during the air traffic controllers' strike) — in order to take extraordinary measures and tackle what the WHO had declared, as early as 11 March, a pandemic.
Tough measures have been in force since the 14th, and their impact will be seen in the coming days.Fernando Simón
Under the state of alarm, similarly to Italy, the government decreed restrictions on the movement of people, who are permitted to leave their homes only in cases of necessity, the closure of all businesses with the exception of essential goods retailers, and the suspension of the Schengen Treaty. Spain too is therefore now formally locked down, with its more than 47 million inhabitants confined to their homes.
"I, like other Italians, already knew it was coming," Carlotta, a 28-year-old Italian living in Barcelona, tells us. "I was walking to work, avoiding public transport, working from home when I could. But I could see everyone else going about their business, out and about, nobody was aware of what was happening. There was a lot of talk about Italy, as though it were something distant. But nobody understood that it was a problem for everyone. And even now, many people are still unclear about the situation and the danger. And above all today, when almost all of us have access to media, we're connected through social media — I can't understand how this is possible."
Nessuno capiva che era un problema comune a tutti.Carlotta, residente a Barcellona
"The situation was frustrating. Even going to work. There's a pandemic under way and people kept talking about going into the office," Carlotta continues. "It was difficult to explain to others. I didn't understand why, but it was frustrating." One question that naturally arises is why the critical situation that had by then reached Europe was not studied more carefully, and why steps were not taken in advance on prevention and information, in a country traditionally characterised by a strongly social culture. "They started taking precautions when the situation had already reached worrying levels, but they could have done so earlier given what was happening in Italy. That was the real mistake: not taking Italy and its errors as an example."
That was the real mistake, not taking Italy and its errors as an example.Carlotta, resident in Barcelona
Spain's future, like that of every country facing this emergency, is tied to the numbers, which are in turn tied to the effectiveness of the measures in place. Spain remains, for the moment, the country in which the virus has spread most rapidly — a trend that also reflects the latest WHO data showing how the speed of global transmission has increased: it took 67 days to reach the first 100,000 cases worldwide, and just four days to double that figure.
The factor that plays a fundamental role is time. The lead time with which preventive and containment measures are introduced, and the length of time they are maintained to halt the spread of the virus and allow healthcare systems to manage the crisis and bring it to an end as quickly as possible. In this respect, the data suggest that, for Spain, too much time passed before action was taken. Indeed, deaths are being recorded in new regions across the country — unlike in Italy, for example, where 80 per cent of deaths continue to be concentrated in the same, most severely affected northern regions. "In Italy, mobility around the initial outbreaks was reduced to a much greater degree, whereas in Spain it remained very high even in the days before the declaration of the state of alarm," confirms Daniel López Acuña, associate professor at the Andalusian School of Public Health and former director of health action in crises at the WHO.
As in Italy, a positive sign can also be found in Spain in the growing number of people who have recovered, which has surpassed 12 per cent of cases, rising from 5,367 recoveries on 25 March to more than 9,000 on 27 March, though more than 3,000 people remain in intensive care. While these are significant and encouraging figures, more time is still needed before the infection and death curves begin to fall in any meaningful way; for this reason the measures imposed, and individuals' compliance with them, are more important than ever. "We are in the hardest week," concludes Fernando Simón, director of the Health Emergency Coordination Centre at the Spanish Ministry of Health. "And it is the very week that will determine whether the pressure on the care system does not become excessive. Because even if one believes it is possible to reach the peak of infections in a relatively short time, that number does not mean that accident and emergency departments and intensive care units will see any relief."