What would change if post-Covid economic stimulus packages funded a green and just recovery? A report from the C40 network provides an answer.
There is the €750 billion of Next Generation EU, the financial support instrument launched by the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen. The $1,800 billion (€1,540 billion) of the Heroes Act drawn up by the White House, following a bitter debate between Democrats and Republicans. The ¥108,000 billion (€920 billion) put on the table by Japan, equivalent to a quarter of its GDP. Adding up the various stimulus packages launched internationally to overcome the economic crisis triggered by coronavirus, the total comes to between €10,000 billion and €12,800 billion.
An impressive volume of money, which could truly transform the life of the planet and its people. The pity, however, is that only a residual share — between 3 and 5 per cent — is currently earmarked for the green transition. This is what emerges from a new report by the C40 network, the alliance of mayors of the world's major cities — which also paints a portrait of what our societies could become if these funds were invested in a green and just recovery.
The report's starting point is the current context, defined as business as usual. The researchers then developed three different green recovery scenarios. The slow one envisages climate interventions being implemented over the next fifteen years; the standard one foresees investments being allocated over the next five years and climate action being triggered between now and 2030; the accelerated one anticipates investments beginning within the next three years and climate actions being completed by 2025.
"It's not just a question of where investments go, but also of their timing," Caterina Sarfatti, who leads C40 Cities' global Inclusive climate action programme, explains to LifeGate. "Between a slow recovery and an accelerated one, the results differ considerably. In communicating future scenarios we focused on the standard recovery, which is not the best option but is the most likely one."
A green and just recovery is capable of creating over 50 million jobs across the nearly one hundred cities of the C40 network and their supply chains — roughly a third more than would be generated by simply maintaining the current polluting infrastructure. With an accelerated recovery, that figure could reach 80 million.
Air pollution in major urban areas would fall by almost 30 per cent, preventing 270,000 premature deaths over the next decade. The economic benefits linked to having saved these human lives are estimated at $280 billion. At the same time, the possibility of a new pandemic similar to the coronavirus one would be reduced, since — as has been widely demonstrated by the scientific literature — the destruction of natural habitats encourages the "species jump" from animals to humans. A healthier population is also a lighter burden on public health systems, which have already been severely tested in recent months. Specifically, the lower number of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions would correspond to savings of $1,400 billion.
If business as usual continues, greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere are set to increase. With a green recovery, however, they could be halved between 2020 and 2030 — putting us on the right track to keep the rise in average global temperatures within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as stipulated by the Paris Agreement on climate.
"Covid-19 has laid bare the deep inequalities embedded in our economies, societies and legislation. Mayors know that going back to normal will not be enough: we must build healthier, more resilient and more inclusive cities around the world," declares the Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti, president of the C40 network.
"While we must continue to focus on preventing the further spread of the virus and on responding to the immediate needs of our communities affected by it, we are also called upon to provide a long-term vision and to prepare ourselves in the best way possible," Beppe Sala, Mayor of Milan and head of C40's Covid-19 recovery task force, echoes. The research work that resulted in the report, he continues, is a great resource for mayors. "They demonstrate why a green and just recovery is the only possible recovery, and what the benefits of sustainable and equitable investment are for our citizens."
