Businesses closed, employees in quarantine, restrictions on movement, a shortage of face masks for protection. The coronavirus is hitting the Chinese economy hard. And, along with it, it could prove to be a severe blow for numerous other countries as well. This was confirmed by the International Monetary Fund, according to which global economic growth could be reduced by 0.1–0.2 per cent.

The IMF: the impact on the global economy will depend on how the epidemic evolves

The figure was provided on 16 February by IMF director Kristalina Georgieva, who nonetheless urged against "rushing to conclusions too hastily", as it is still "too early" to estimate the impact of the epidemic, which has already killed more than two thousand people in China. "We do not yet know," she specified, "how long it will take the Beijing authorities to contain the spread of the coronavirus, nor do we know how far it will spread around the world. What we do know is that it will affect the economic system at a global level."

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IMF's Georgieva says it's too soon to tell what impact the coronavirus will have on the global economy trib.al/m4nC8xu

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This is because, the same official had explained in a previous interview given to the American broadcaster CNBC, of the likely sharp decline in activity in China. According to the World Economic Forum, the contraction in the gross domestic product of the Asian giant could be as much as 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2020.

Numerous industries stripped of workers due to the coronavirus

However, the IMF's number one expects a swift recovery from the Asian giant thereafter. These are only forecasts, however: the evolution of the virus will need to be monitored before its real economic impact can be understood. What is very likely, in any case, is that it will be more severe than that of SARS. Not only because the latter killed "only" 774 people in 2002–2003, but above all because since then China's weight in the global economy has risen from 8 to 19 per cent.

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Investors are concerned that since China’s GDP is much larger than it was at the time of the 2003 Sars outbreak, the economic damage from the coronavirus could be far more extensive. Follow live updates and analysis here: on.ft.com/3bRST6Y

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A further indication of the impact the epidemic could have at a global level was provided by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, which surveyed the situation of 109 American companies operating on Chinese territory. As it turned out, two thirds of them managed to resume manufacturing production, but 78 per cent say they do not have enough workers available to run their businesses at their usual pace. Not to mention Hubei province, the main epicentre of the epidemic, which has been cut off from the world since 23 January.

And elsewhere too, precautionary measures are particularly strict: "In some districts," Paul Sives explained, head of the European Chamber of Commerce in south-west China, to the AFP agency, "in order to be authorised to reopen factories you have to be able to provide two face masks per day to each worker, and have a two-week stock available."

CO2 emissions down 25% in China in the first two weeks of February

An emergency situation, then, that is hitting certain sectors particularly hard. As in the case of the automotive sector: according to Bloomberg, vehicle sales collapsed by 92 per cent in the first two weeks of February compared with the same period the previous year. A CNN commentary also highlights the global consequences for the automotive industry, linked to the fact that virtually all manufacturers use (some) products made in China: "You cannot bring a vehicle to market if even just 1 per cent of its components is missing."

Carbon Brief ✓ @CarbonBrief

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NEW - Analysis: Coronavirus has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter | @laurimyllyvirta j.mp/37CbnFf

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In all of this, at least, the coronavirus is offering one piece of good news for the Earth. The epidemic has indeed caused CO2 emissions to plummet. According to the specialist website Carbon Brief, the reduction has been at least 100 million tonnes compared with last year: "The drop in coal and oil consumption has led to a fall in emissions of no less than 25 per cent." This is equivalent to 6 per cent of global emissions. Even if the coronavirus were defeated today, at the annual level, this would amount to a fall in emissions for China of around 1 per cent.