While Europe is still grappling with the extreme heatwave that began mid-month on the Iberian Peninsula, and as another one — now virtually certain — looms from next weekend, the European climate monitoring service Copernicus has released alarming new data. This time, the records do not concern the Old Continent alone but the entire world, and in particular sea surface temperatures.

Average of 20.86 degrees Celsius reached: 2023 and 2024 records broken

According to joint data from the Climate Change Service and the Marine Service, the average temperature at the surface of ocean basins across the entire Planet has exceeded the all-time high reached in 2023 and 2024 for this time of year, when temperatures had climbed to 20.83 degrees Celsius. On 21 June, the observed temperature stood at 20.86 degrees.

This is, in effect, a confirmation of the "push" coming from the onset of El Niño, a cyclical phenomenon consisting of a rise in the surface temperature of the tropical waters of the Pacific Ocean, whose return was confirmed on 2 June by the World Meteorological Organization. It was therefore to be expected that the 2023–2024 record would be broken.

Rising sea temperatures mean more energy for storms and extreme rainfall

But this is not merely a statistical observation: warmer seas also mean increased moisture in the air and, consequently, a heightened risk of extreme weather events such as storms, torrential rainfall and potential flooding. Copernicus itself warns in no uncertain terms: "This record is expected to have consequences for both weather patterns and global climate, as well as for marine ecosystems."

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The world's oceans just experienced their hottest June on record and could set fresh highs in the months ahead as El Nino and climate change drive temperatures even higher.

Global average sea surface temperatures in June were 20.98C, beating the previous records of 2023 and 2024

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Moreover, "a warmer ocean has far-reaching repercussions. Higher ocean temperatures keep the atmosphere warm for longer, provide additional energy to storms and increase evaporation, thereby raising the risk of extreme rainfall and flooding. Ocean warming also contributes to sea level rise and ice melt, placing severe strain on marine ecosystems."

"It is the beginning of a new phase that will once again lead us into uncharted territory"

The European service also notes that over the past three years, the world's oceans outside polar regions have been between 0.35 and 0.73 degrees Celsius warmer than the long-term average. In June, these anomalies reached record levels: "A figure that reflects both climate change and the onset of an El Niño event whose intensity is expected to reach levels not seen for decades."

So much so that, according to the director of Copernicus's Climate Change Service, Carlo Buontempo, "current conditions may indicate the beginning of a new phase, which will lead us, once again, into uncharted territory. With ocean temperatures at these levels and El Niño on the horizon, it is likely that in the coming months we will witness further temperature records being broken." This also means consequences for ecosystems, for fisheries, and for the economies of coastal areas.