The conviction of Ekrem Imamoğlu, the Istanbul mayor wrested from Erdoğan in 2019, is a blow to the opposition ahead of the presidential elections. Or perhaps not.
"Insane." An adjective that, in Turkey, can make the difference between freedom of expression and censorship, just as it can between a fragile yet resilient political pluralism and autocracy exercised in the most brazen and unpunished manner. "Insane" was the word directed at state officials by Istanbul's mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, who in 2019 won the elections to lead the city not once but twice. The then-candidate backed by the opposition parties prevailed legitimately and democratically even after an initial annulment of the electoral round in which he had been declared the winner, decreed by the central government at the behest of Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. On Wednesday 14 December, Imamoğlu, regarded by many as Erdoğan's principal opponent, was convicted and sentenced to two years and seven months in prison for that word spoken in public towards those who tried to bury the will of the country's foremost economic and cultural centre. A conviction that could now cost him his political career, removing one of the most unwelcome adversaries for Ankara.
On 23 June 2019, Erdoğan suffered what remains the greatest defeat of his political career. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate, Binali Yıldırım, conceded defeat in the Istanbul mayoral race against Imamoğlu himself, who was backed by a coalition of opposition parties. Those elections were a rerun of the local elections originally scheduled for 31 March, which had already rewarded the candidate of the main opposition party.
With the June defeat, which came by an even wider margin than the previous one, the heart of Turkey had just slipped from Erdoğan's hands after 25 years, severely denting the president's aura of invincibility. While the outcome of those elections had confirmed the AKP's dominance in the provinces of central Anatolia and in rural areas, the Republican People's Party (CHP) came first in Istanbul, in the capital Ankara, and in Izmir, the country's third-largest city. The attempt to consolidate in the major cities the support drawn from the periphery had thus failed for the first time in 16 years at the helm of the nation.
Commenting on his election in a speech delivered that same evening, Imamoğlu declared that "16 million Istanbul residents have refreshed our faith in democracy and justice." But if the elections had represented a rout in the major cities, a further blow to Erdoğan had come from the victory of numerous Kurdish minority representatives in several provinces. In a unilateral move, Ankara decided to remove dozens of Kurdish mayors from their posts, on the grounds that they were accused of supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), replacing them with state-appointed administrators. The act of erasure did not go unnoticed, and Imamoğlu described the decision to annul the electoral results as an "insane" gesture. That was enough for him to receive a complaint for insulting state officials, an offence under Turkish law. The formal charge against Imamoğlu was filed by a state prosecutor in 2021.
Since the sentence is for a period shorter than the minimum threshold that Turkish law sets for custodial imprisonment, Imamoğlu will not go to prison. However, should the appeal not alter the judge's ruling, he will be removed from his institutional role in Istanbul and will be barred from standing for re-election for the duration of the sentence.
In this way, the AKP will not have to face one of the most highly rated candidates to represent the grouping of parties that make up the opposition — which has not yet announced its presidential candidate — and perhaps the only one to have concretely demonstrated that he can beat the ruling party at the polls not once, but twice. According to forecasts, Turkey is expected to hold its next presidential elections by June 2023.
Immediately after the verdict was made public, thousands of people gathered outside the city hall on the Bosphorus to show their support for the mayor: "This case is proof that there is no longer justice in Turkey. This case is being handled by those people who do not want to bring the most divine values, such as justice and democracy, to Turkey," Imamoğlu told the demonstrators.
The mayor swiftly received messages of solidarity from the leaders of the opposition parties, who, while they may have lost a potential ace up their sleeve, demonstrated their ability to close ranks in the face of the government's authoritarian abuses — a government that, on the economic front, is grappling with the near-doubling of prices due to inflation and the devaluation of the Turkish lira, which in one year has lost more than half its value against the dollar. The coming months will be crucial to determining whether the judges' decision represents a blow to the opposition forces. In the meantime, the square outside Istanbul's city hall is crying out the opposite.
