The European Commission is calling for net greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 90 per cent by 2040, leaving "flexibility" on the methods.
As widely expected, the European Commission on 2 July 2025 proposed an amendment to the climate law, the text that defines the binding roadmap for zeroing out the Continent's net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. And in this amendment there is the missing target: after the minus 55 per cent by 2030, the next step is minus 90 per cent of net emissions by 2040, again compared to 1990 levels.
In making the announcement, the Commission chose to cite the latest Eurobarometer survey dedicated specifically to climate change. On average, 81 per cent of citizens across the Union say they support achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Italy sits slightly above the average at 84 per cent, while the most sceptical country is Estonia, the only one to fall below 50 per cent (at 46 per cent, to be precise). Also according to citizens, the actors with the greatest means to tackle the climate crisis are national governments (66 per cent), the European Union (59 per cent) and businesses and industry (58 per cent).
Buoyed by this favourable public opinion and by the fact of being on track for the 55 per cent emissions cut promised by 2030, the Commission is looking to the next decade. It is setting a target — minus 90 per cent of net emissions by 2040 — which in its own words "will give certainty to investors, stimulate innovation, strengthen the industrial leadership of our companies and increase energy security". This is a proposal that will now be submitted to the European Parliament and the Council, following the ordinary legislative procedure.
Setting a legally binding target is fundamental, but so is defining in detail the path to achieving it. This has proved to be a particularly sensitive issue. It can be inferred from the fact that the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change had urged the Commission to leave no room for shortcuts such as international greenhouse gas offsets. The mechanism, provided for under the Paris Agreement, allows a state to finance a project abroad and count the resulting emissions reduction towards its own national targets.
The European Commission, however, has decided to place flexibility at the centre of its approach. This means there will be room for international carbon credits too, but only to a limited extent (no more than 3 per cent of European net emissions from 1990), following a detailed impact assessment and after the adoption of specific legislation establishing the relevant conditions and quality criteria. If they remain within these parameters, according to analyst Francesca Bellisai of the think tank Ecco, the credits "can become a potentially useful response for financing international cooperation and in support of multilateralism". Far harsher is the European office of Greenpeace, which speaks of "accounting tricks" and reiterates that "the European Union, as a historical polluter, has the responsibility to reduce its own emissions".
