Where the wave of coups in Africa could lead
Rights — di Marco Simoncelli
Coups are often associated with Latin America. But Africa is the continent with the most coups in the world. The latest took place in the Sahel.
Where the wave of coups in Africa could lead
Coups are often associated with Latin America. But Africa is the continent with the most coups in the world. The latest took place in the Sahel.
The withdrawal of approximately 1,500 soldiers and their equipment from Niger, which was one of Paris's last allies in the Sahel before the coup of 26 July, follows those in Mali and Burkina Faso, where France had already been shown the door by hostile juntas. It is the latest consequence of the wave of coups that from 2020 to the present have brought military juntas to power on the African continent. In the last three years alone, no fewer than eight governments have been overthrown in French-speaking African countries.
Flash Points newsletter: Is Niger’s coup the Sahel’s last straw? PLUS: How U.N. peacekeeping accidentally fuels Africa’s coups.
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buff.ly/3sKH67b
To these should be added the case of Sudan, where in 2019, following massive popular protests, the military ousted dictator Omar al-Bashir while promising a civilian transitional government that did not last long. The events that followed led to the outbreak of a civil conflict that is tearing the country apart, with more than three million displaced people. Taking the Sudanese tragedy into account as well, it is now possible to draw a "coup belt" on the map stretching from the Red Sea across the continent all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.
After Sudan, coups followed in succession in Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Chad (April 2021), Guinea (September 2021), Burkina Faso (January and September 2022), Niger (July 2023), Gabon (August 2023).
In the popular imagination, coups are always associated with Latin America, but in reality African history has recorded far more of them: 214 attempted coups from 1950 to the present, of which 106 succeeded. This dynamic had appeared to slow somewhat over the past twenty years, with the average frequency halving, but recent events represent a surprising resurgence, coming after years of efforts by the African Union, the United Nations and private foundations to consolidate civil societies across the continent.
There are various reasons that can explain this, and not all of them come down to "a struggle for power by oligarchies," "a Russian conspiracy," or "a rejection of the West." These are all elements that appear with varying nuances depending on the case, but they do not explain everything, because it is the continent's society that is caught up in profound transformations that appear to be going unnoticed.
In 1963 independent African states & liberation movements met in Addis Ababa #Ethiopia to form Africa’s first post-independence continental institution The Organization of African Unity OAU whose Charter was adopted on May 25 #AfricaDay 1963 #OurAfricaOurFuture
Chad and Gabon, separate stories
There is a distinction to be drawn between the "cases" of the Sahel countries and those of Chad and Gabon, in addition to the already-mentioned Sudan. In N'Djamena, an anomalous coup took place in which the military essentially replaced the former president, Idriss Déby, who had died during a military operation, with his son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby, in violation of the constitution.
In Gabon, on 30 August last year, the military ousted President Ali Bongo, who had been declared the winner of elections for a third term, and the population celebrated, convinced that nearly sixty years of rule by the Bongo family "system" had finally come to an end. But even as we witness the first high-profile purges, the old political-economic elite remains in place, and the general who seized power in Libreville, Brice Oligui Nguema, is a cousin of the deposed president.
In both these contexts, the coups look more like cases of gattopardism to which the continent has grown accustomed, in which everything "changes so that nothing changes". It is no coincidence that in both situations France, the former colonial power, had not expressed firm condemnation, and the reactions of the international community were weak, if not non-existent. A signal that perhaps a certain status quo favourable to geo-economic interests had remained intact.
The Sahel ablaze and the farewell to françafrique
For the Sahel countries, the picture is truly different and perhaps more worrying, as this region has for decades been experiencing upheavals linked to climate change, migration and the rise of inter-communal conflicts, which LifeGate has covered extensively in depth.
It is worth recalling that the main illegal trafficking routes for drugs, weapons, natural resources and human beings pass through these areas. This is where, for more than ten years, the fight against the spread of religious extremist ideology and some of the jihadist organisations active worldwide has been concentrated.
The wave of coups in this region carries a range of meanings. First and foremost, the common thread running through the various events is the progressive end of the French neo-colonial model that emerged in the 1960s under President Charles de Gaulle and his adviser Jacques Foccart, nicknamed "Monsieur Afrique." This was the system known as "Françafrique," through which independent and ostensibly democratic states were created and sustained on paper, but in practice remained subordinate to the former colonial power.
A deceptive apparatus that has weakened over the past two decades with the arrival of alternative and competitive political-economic partners such as China, Turkey and Russia. As French journalist Pierre Hasky noted on France Inter, the moment has come for Paris to "rethink its foreign policy in Africa, rebuild its image and renegotiate an equal partnership."
Beyond the symbolic significance, these coups have brought about the withdrawal of military assistance from the Sahel. French soldiers will for now be present only in Chad, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire and Gabon.
In their place, Moscow has entered the picture. Much has been said about the role of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in having facilitated and supported the new military juntas in order to expand and consolidate Russian influence in the region and gain access to its resources. This is probably true, but in reality the Kremlin, through the strategy implemented by figures such as Yevgeny Prigozhin, has merely read the changes under way in society and then exploited them, using social media and fake news to full effect.
Weapons are not enough
Another point that emerges from the series of putsches is the failure of the security-focused approach to the Sahel. All these years of war on terrorism, traffickers and migration routes, pursued by the United States and the European Union as well, have not produced concrete, lasting results. Proof of this is that today Mali and Burkina Faso are among the deadliest places in the world in terms of terrorism, and Niger, which had seen a drop in attacks over the past year, is at serious risk of falling into the same spiral.
It is paradoxical, but the presence of foreign troops in these countries has accidentally contributed to the rise to power of military regimes. In practice, the juntas currently in power in the Sahel were armed and trained by the very powers that are now being shown the door.
This is proof that support in the security sector should have been accompanied by a broader and more substantial policy of development aid. In particular, the transfer of know-how on food security and climate change resilience, the creation of business opportunities and sustainable employment, and the spread of education, rights and public health.
NEW: While #Niger's junta has cited rising insecurity as a justification for the coup, violence has been on the decline. In the first half of 2023, conflict incidents decreased by an estimated 39% compared to the previous six-month period.
Fact sheet ▶️ bit.ly/3OI7O9o
Fact sheet ▶️ bit.ly/3OI7O9o
Neo-sovereigntism
The large number of people who took to the streets of Bamako, Ouagadougou, Conakry and Niamey bears witness to popular support for the new military juntas, and this carries another meaning. According to a recent study carried out by Afrobarometer and the international organisation Open Society Foundations, more than half of African citizens, while believing that democracy is the best form of government, would consider military intervention legitimate in the event of "abuses" by democratically elected rulers. According to the same study, it is young people aged between 18 and 35 who are the most sceptical towards other democratic solutions.
In these countries, coups appear to be the only way out of achieving change within societies infected by deep divisions and stagnant structures.
According to political scientist Achille Mbembe, writing in the newspaper Le Monde, Africa is entering a new historical cycle and society is undergoing transformations that "affect every level and translate into a chain of ruptures". Today we are witnessing the entry into the political and public sphere of generations born between the 1990s and the early 2000s. Young people who did not live through decol