The World Meteorological Organisation reports an increase of almost one degree compared to the average of the last century: the risk of natural disasters is growing.
2016 is not yet over, but it is already set to go down in history as the hottest year on record, erasing a record that had stood for just one year — that of 2015. Preliminary data from the World Meteorological Organisation show an increase in global temperatures of approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Specifically, data covering only the period January–September 2016 point to an increase of 0.88° compared to the average of 14 degrees recorded over the thirty-year period 1961–1990. The rise in annual mean temperatures is undoubtedly influenced, at least in the early months of the year, by the contingent effects of Hurricane El Niño, but this does not change the fact that the global warming trend is now structural: 16 of the 17 hottest years ever recorded have fallen in this century (the other being 1998).
Long-term climate change indicators have also reached new records: the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise, Arctic glaciers remained at very low levels especially in the early months of 2016 and during the refreezing period in October, and the Greenland ice sheet also underwent severe erosion. El Niño also contributed to rising ocean heat, causing coral bleaching and sea level rise. But the most devastating natural event of 2016 so far has been Hurricane Matthew, which plunged Haiti back into a serious humanitarian emergency following the 2010 earthquake. Throughout the year, the organisation explains, extreme weather conditions caused considerable socio-economic problems in every region of the world.
"The effects of El Niño have run their course, while those of global warming will continue," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. "In some parts of the Arctic in Russia, temperatures were 6–7 degrees above average; in Alaska and north-west Canada, at least 3 degrees above. Due to climate change, extreme events like El Niño will become increasingly frequent and have a greater impact. That is why the WMO will use every means at its disposal to ensure that the contents of the Paris Agreement are put into practice."
Specifically, the United Nations body is working to improve the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and to develop more precise climate forecasts on timescales ranging from weeks to decades, in order to support key sectors such as agriculture, water management, health, energy planning and adaptation to future changes. The WMO regards new natural disasters caused by climate warming as almost inevitable, and warns that in the future "rapid and effective early warning systems that will save many lives, now and in the years to come" will also be needed. "There is a great need to strengthen warning capacities, particularly in developing countries. This is a powerful means of adapting to climate change," said Taalas.
It is no coincidence that the World Meteorological Organisation published this document in provisional form, in order to make the new data available to the Climate Change Conference currently under way in Marrakech and to contribute to the final declaration of Cop22, which is expected to include a focus on the humanitarian impact of rising temperatures.
