According to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme, the commitments put forward by states so far are futile; meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate requires genuine commitment.
Between what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and what has so far been pledged by nations around the world "a catastrophic gap still exists." The alarm comes from the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment, formerly Unep), which in its annual report entitled "Emissions Gap" explains how the world is still very far from the trajectory that would make it possible to limit the rise in average global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels.
The UN has its sights set in particular on the INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions), that is, the pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions formally put forward by governments around the world ahead of COP 21 in Paris in 2015. At the time, the French government had already acknowledged that the commitments made were not sufficient: now there is official confirmation from the United Nations itself, arriving just days before the start of COP 23 in Bonn, whose main objective — not coincidentally — is precisely to lay the groundwork for the revision of the INDCs that is due to take place in 2018.
The problem is that this "revision" cannot be limited to minor adjustments. According to UN Environment, in fact, "especially if global economic growth were to accelerate," it is possible that global greenhouse gas emissions could struggle to reach their peak before reversing course and declining. The report explains in this regard that — taking into account not only carbon dioxide but also other "climate-altering" gases, such as methane — total emissions in 2016 amounted to 52 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The same United Nations agency then sets out the maximum ceiling that will need to be reached by 2030 if there is still any hope of not exceeding the 2-degree threshold by the end of the century: "Total emissions will need to be limited to 42 billion tonnes per year; 36 billion if the aim is not to exceed +1.5 degrees."
According to the UN's calculations, the current figure will therefore need to fall by at least 10 billion tonnes from today's level. How can this be achieved? Through the commitments of each nation: the very ones set out in the INDCs. However, the report explains that these, in their current form, will be sufficient to deliver only "approximately one third of the necessary reduction" (and that is on the condition, of course, that each government faithfully honours what it has promised). In other words, the trajectory that the current INDCs will make possible will see average global temperature rise by "3, if not as much as 3.2 degrees," by the end of the century.
"The situation is very worrying," commented climatologist Jean Jouzel, former vice-president of the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the newspaper Le Monde, "given that we are still very far from the goals set out in Paris. To keep alive any hope of not exceeding 2 degrees, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 at the latest."
The director of UN Environment, Erik Solheim, nonetheless attempted to maintain a degree of optimism: "We need to reverse course in technologies and investment. This could reduce emissions while simultaneously creating immense social, economic and environmental opportunities." Provided that the world commits to a swift and vigorous change of direction.
