The balance of power among global economies is constantly shifting. Among the future superpowers are some names we would never have expected.
We have always been accustomed to thinking of Western nations as sitting at the top of the global economy. The rise of China and India has forced us to reconsider. And in the years ahead we will witness the arrival of some unexpected new entrants.
According to data from the World Bank, taken up and reworked by the World Economic Forum, the United States today remains firmly in first place among the world's largest economies. Its nominal GDP is estimated at $18 trillion, just under a quarter of total global GDP. China comes in immediately after, at $11 trillion, followed (at a considerable distance) by Japan, which accounts for 6 per cent of the global economy. Europe then makes its presence felt, with Germany ($3,300 billion), the United Kingdom ($2,900 billion) and France ($2,400 billion). Behind India, in eighth place, Italy makes an appearance ($1,800 billion), followed by Brazil and Canada, which round off the top 10.
The United States' dominance among the world's largest economies, however, is not set to last. As early as 2016, China's GDP growth rate stood at 6.7 per cent, just above India's 6.6 per cent — an entirely different world compared with the United States' +1.6 per cent. Even today, the Asian bloc is by far the largest, accounting for more than a third of global GDP, while North America stands at just under 28 per cent and Europe at 21.37 per cent. And when GDP at purchasing power parity is taken into account, China has already overtaken the United States.
But there is more. A new study by PricewaterhouseCoopers projects forward to 2050 and the results are striking. In terms of GDP at purchasing power parity — the measure by which, it is worth remembering, the United States has already lost its top position — in just over thirty years' time the US will slip to third place, behind China and India. In fourth place comes Indonesia, followed by Brazil, Russia and Mexico. The biggest leaps forward will be made by Vietnam (from 32nd to 20th place), the Philippines (from 28th to 19th) and Nigeria (from 22nd to 14th). The Old Continent will pay the price, with the United Kingdom dropping to tenth place, France falling out of the top 10 altogether, and Italy dropping out of the top 20 entirely.