China could soon reach its own peak greenhouse gas emissions. The conditional is necessary, as data will need to be verified over the medium-to-long term, and it is not currently possible to predict a specific date. But the current trend appears to leave room for optimism. This is explained by an analysis by Carbon Brief, according to which the overall emissions of the Asian giant have remained flat or have been falling over the past eighteen months.

China's emissions data of "great symbolic importance"

Already in the first quarter of this year, China had recorded a decline for the first time, thanks to growth in production from renewable sources. It was the first time this occurred independently of electricity demand: the latter, in fact, rose significantly over the same period, which made the figure all the more meaningful.

Carbon Brief ✓ @CarbonBrief

𝕏

Analysis: China's CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months | @laurimyllyvirta

Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a

♥ 21💬 3 12 nov 2025 · Apri su X →

In terms of absolute values, the decline has nonetheless been modest and insufficient to make a significant impact on the overall planetary situation. The political weight, however, is considerable: "If an increase or decrease of less than 1 per cent may not make a great difference from the perspective of targets, it carries great symbolic importance," the Carbon Brief report underlines.

Good results from transport, cement plants and steelworks. Chemical sector lags behind

Some sectors appear more virtuous than others in China: transport recorded a -5 per cent in emissions in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period the previous year. This was largely due to the spread of electric vehicles. As for steel and cement production, emissions remained stable, yet against a 6.1 per cent increase in demand, which effectively indicates a positive result. On the other hand, however, the chemical industry recorded a sharp increase.

Nevertheless, the emissions reduction pledge made by the Beijing government, formalised in September, struck many observers as disappointing. It envisages a reduction of between 7 and 10 per cent by 2025, but with no further details specified.

60 per cent of China's electricity still depends on coal

China also remains, in absolute terms (though not per capita), the world's largest emitter of CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere, accounting for 30 per cent of the global total (equivalent to approximately 15.6 billion tonnes), according to United Nations data. Historically, however, the United States remains firmly at the top of the rankings.

As for electricity generation, despite enormous growth in renewables, the Asian giant still relies on coal for 60 per cent of its power — the single most polluting and climate-damaging source. The road to completing the ecological transition process, therefore, is still very long.