China, the horizon of mobility is the electric car. By law
Mobility — di Sebastiano Salvetti
By 2019, carmakers operating in China will have to shift from selling combustion-engine models to electric cars. This is established by a government decree.

By 2019, carmakers operating in China will have to shift from selling combustion-engine models to electric cars. This is established by a government decree.
With almost one and a half billion inhabitants, an area of around 9.6 million square kilometres and a territory of incredible variety — ranging from the Gobi Desert to the steppes, from subtropical forests to the imposing peaks of the Himalayas — China is, in every sense, another world. A reality that is often little understood, in many respects hazy, and mistakenly considered backward in the eyes of the West. An economic and military power that today lays claim to a leading role in the electrification of mobility. Once the world's largest consumer of coal for energy production, China is now aiming to become a leader in the renewables market. An epochal transition that promises to have far-reaching repercussions on the automotive world.

The new five-year plan launched by the government envisages substantial investment in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind. By 2020, 27 per cent of China's energy production will be tied to clean sources, while 55 per cent will come from the use of coal. An unprecedented transition. Just as unprecedented is the electrification of automotive mobility that lies ahead. In just three years — namely from 2013 to 2016, charging points went from zero to over 140,000, as recorded by the International Energy Agency (IEA), while battery-powered cars grew from just over 15,000 to almost 260,000, capturing a market share of one per cent. While the rest of the world has "merely" quadrupled the uptake of zero-emission vehicles, China is growing in double digits and is poised to multiply its 2013 figures by thirty.

China is turning towards electric. That is a fact. A transition that, for the moment, benefits above all the domestic industry. According to a study carried out by the American firm Alix Partners, specialising in research and corporate consulting, of the 260,000 electric cars (understood as vehicles that are both plug-in hybrids and those powered exclusively by batteries) sold, 44 per cent belong to Chinese manufacturers. By way of comparison, the global market, which also includes traditional combustion-engine vehicles, sees Eastern brands capturing no more than six per cent. Considering that coming across a Chinese electric car in Europe or the United States is about as likely as slipping on a carpet of four-leaf clovers, it is clear that it is domestic demand driving this phenomenon. While waiting for a further, sharp, step change.

The Chinese government has imposed an obligation on carmakers that produce or import more than 30,000 vehicles a year to progressively shift from selling petrol and diesel models to marketing electric and plug-in hybrid cars. A requirement set to come into force from 2019, after being postponed by one year relative to the original timetable. The government programme stems from a dual need: on the one hand to reduce pollution levels, which are nothing short of out of control in the main cities, and on the other to further fuel a market in vertiginous growth. To the point that, by 2025, zero-emission models are forecast to account for 20 per cent of the entire newly registered vehicle fleet. Figures that even put eco-conscious California in the shade, while still falling short of the Norwegian record of 42 per cent. In any comparison between the Nordic country and China, however, the ratio of volumes is akin to a contest between a fly and an elephant.

In China, approximately 200 million internal combustion engine vehicles are currently on the road. Many — too many, according to the government. The desire to reduce smog and curb oil imports has led the central authority to fund manufacturers such as Geely, the current owner of the historic European marques Volvo and Lotus, Byd Auto and Beijing Electric Vehicle. Brands that are virtually unknown in the West. A phenomenon that on the one hand opens the door to joint ventures with European and American manufacturers — Ford, for example, has signed an agreement with Anhui Zotye Automobile, while Volkswagen is collaborating with Jac Motors — and on the other gives rise to a suspicion. Namely that the Chinese automotive industry, unable to compete either technically or in terms of design with its Western and Japanese-Korean counterparts, has bet on the switch to the electric motor to close part of the gap, shifting the competition primarily into the field of batteries. Batteries whose construction requires raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt — of which China, aided by its "shopping" in Australia, the Philippines and the Congo, is one of the leading producers.

The recent Frankfurt Motor Show revealed, albeit somewhat away from the spotlight, China's potential in the electric field. Brands such as Chery and Wey — the luxury division of the better-known Great Wall — have abandoned the futuristic, and frankly ungainly, lines of the past in favour of a design in keeping with European tastes, showcasing high-end battery-powered SUVs and saloons. The more prestigious marques, for their part, did respond, but through concept cars rather than production-ready models. The challenge has, in any case, been issued. From 2020, when the new ranges of zero-emission vehicles proposed by Western brands — Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz among them — come to market, the automotive world will undergo an epochal transition towards electric mobility. Let no one sleep.
