Climate change will also affect groundwater aquifers
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
A study by Fondazione Cmcc and the University of Bologna analysed two Apennine aquifers, estimating flow declines over the coming decades.

A study by Fondazione Cmcc and the University of Bologna analysed two Apennine aquifers, estimating flow declines over the coming decades.
For obvious reasons, among the impacts of climate change, those most visible to us tend to generate the greatest concern. It is now widely known that the rise in average global temperature triggers a series of consequences for meteorological balances across numerous regions of the world. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events – such as storms and torrential rainfall – is no longer a reality confined to the most exposed parts of the world. During the summer months, exceptional heatwaves are becoming ever more frequent and intense. The agricultural sector is being forced to contend with increasingly prolonged and severe droughts. Mega-wildfires now repeatedly devastate the entire planet: from the Amazon to the United States, from Canada to Siberia. But there are also other impacts, less visible yet equally worrying: one of these concerns groundwater aquifers, which has been the subject of an innovative study by the University of Bologna and the Fondazione Centro euro-mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici (Cmcc).
We are talking, evidently, about an element vital to human and animal life. Water resources have already been made scarcer across the world not only because of extreme weather events but also as a result of our development model. A study published by Oxfam during 2024 pointed the finger at the techniques used by large multinationals to monopolise water sources. Methods that pose a threat not only to the environment but also to the respect of human rights.
According to a joint report by the World Health Organization and Unicef, 2.1 billion people currently lack access to clean drinking water worldwide, and more than 4 billion cannot rely on safe decontamination systems. A situation made even more serious by global warming and repeated drought episodes, which reduce the water availability essential for every form of life on Earth and indispensable for sustaining agricultural crops. Indeed, 70 per cent of global water consumption is linked to irrigation, compared with 20 per cent from the industrial sector and 10 per cent from domestic use.
"Global warming affects the atmospheric and oceanic energy balance, modifying the water cycle on Earth – explains the study by the University of Bologna and Cmcc –. The Mediterranean region is a critical area for climate change due to the reduction in water recharge and the increasing frequency and severity of droughts over recent decades."
The potential impacts on surface waters, depending on different scenarios of average global temperature increase, have been extensively studied. Numerous texts offer estimates of the flow rates of river basins and waterways around the world. By contrast, the effects on groundwater remain currently uncertain. For this reason, the aim of the study was to "forecast the long-term impacts of climate change on the discharge of two springs with extensive flow records, located in distinct hydrogeological settings within the Mediterranean climate zone".
The researchers chose to focus on two springs. The first is known as Sanità, which gives rise to the river Sele and flows out at 420 metres above sea level from the slopes of the Cervialto mountain group, in Campania. The second is the Ermicciolo spring, which emerges near Vivo d'Orcia at approximately one thousand metres in altitude, and is one of the most important springs on Monte Amiata, in Tuscany.
The study analysed the flow rates of the springs, estimating long-term trends for the period spanning 2040 to 2070. It concluded that "the multi-decade decline in spring discharge is more influenced by climatic factors than by specific hydrogeological characteristics. This leads to the hypothesis that similar trends could be expected in other aquifers within Mediterranean-type climates around the world. Future water shortages will have a significant impact on the hydrogeological settings of these climates." A finding that should serve as a warning to prompt timely action, in order to "plan and implement large-scale infrastructure projects in the coming decades", the analysis adds.

In particular, in the two cases of Sanità and Ermicciolo, "considering the most severe scenarios, a decrease in flow rate is estimated for both sources in the period 2040–2070, compared to 1990–2024. The decline is estimated at -8.6 per cent for the Sanità spring and -10.8 per cent for the Ermicciolo spring. That is, a drop in flow rate of 310 and 15 litres per second, respectively."
It is also for this reason that companies — starting with agro-industrial ones — must be required to make more sustainable use of a vital resource such as water. To protect it, specific rules will need to be adopted as soon as possible — stringent ones, tailored to the climate emergency.