Droughts, extreme heatwaves, mega-fires, storms and floods don't only cause localised damage in the areas they strike. On the contrary, they ripple through the economy, undermine productive capacity, and hit the wallets of each and every one of us, often for years to come. In recent months, temperature anomalies and a lack of rainfall have alternated with extraordinary bursts of intense thunderstorms. All of this is already giving rise to what some economists have termed climateflation — in other words, climate-driven inflation.

Oxford Economics: global food prices forecast to rise by 11.8 per cent

Extreme weather events are having a direct impact on the agricultural sector, on harvests, on logistics and, in a cascading effect, on food prices. At a global level, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics, food prices are expected to rise by 11.8 per cent over the course of the year. A figure that, for now, cannot be attributed to El Niño, the cyclical climate phenomenon consisting of the anomalous warming of equatorial Pacific waters.

The latter, in fact, will only make its weight felt from next autumn onwards, and will consequently feed through to consumer prices later, amplifying the problem over the medium and long term. The suffocating, prolonged heat we have experienced is therefore overwhelmingly the result of climate change caused by human activity, above all the burning of coal, oil and gas. Compounding matters further is the fact that the prices of those very fuels have risen enormously in recent months due to international geopolitical tensions, pushing up the cost of transporting goods.

Energy costs — and, by extension, transport costs — are also weighing heavily

It is a situation of widespread difficulty, then, that is prompting manufacturers to pass costs on to consumer prices. When one considers that the vast majority of goods are distributed via vehicles powered by combustion engines, it becomes clear that on top of extreme weather conditions we must factor in dynamics in the energy sector. It is an explosive combination whose price we are about to pay.

Coceral — the European association representing the trade in cereals, rice, feedstuffs, oilseeds, olive oil, oils and fats, and agricultural supplies — published a report in July sounding the alarm over cereal harvest forecasts. The total production of the European Union's twenty-seven member states, combined with that of the United Kingdom, is expected to fall from last year's 311.3 million tonnes to 295.5 million. The barley harvest, for example, is projected to drop from 63.8 to 58.8 million tonnes.

Cereal harvests in widespread decline: "A spring that was too dry, then extreme heat"

In particular, according to the AFP agency, a report from the German Farmers' Federation indicates that overall cereal production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent, to 41.9 million tonnes compared with 45.2 million in 2025. Yields are likewise expected to drop by 9 per cent. The same trade association has no doubt about the reasons behind this negative trend: "The determining factors were a spring that was too dry and the extreme heatwave in the second half of June, which in many areas caused premature ripening." Similarly, the British non-profit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit has estimated gross losses at approximately 10 million tonnes, implying a drop in farmers' revenues of around 2 billion euros.

But pressures in the sector are multiplying across numerous regions around the world. Among the goods for which a widespread price increase is forecast is coffee — whether in beans, ground or in capsules. The historic drought that has struck Brazil has severely curtailed the global harvest of both arabica and robusta. Extreme heat followed by torrential rainfall has damaged cocoa bean harvests in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana (the world's leading producers).

Olives, citrus fruits, potatoes, coffee and cocoa: prices will only keep rising

The lack of rainfall and prolonged water stress have also affected olive cultivation in Tuscany, while in the Ligurian Levante the floods and extreme storms recorded in the third week of August caused serious losses, according to Coldiretti. "In some areas," the trade association explained, "losses for olive growers reached as high as 50 per cent, with severe damage also to vineyards." Harvests are also complicated in other regions, including the productive areas of Spain and Greece. Price increases for olive oil in the short and medium term are therefore easy to anticipate.

Similarly, the drought in Brazil, combined with the spread of citrus greening disease (HLB), could cause citrus prices to skyrocket, affecting both fresh fruit and, for example, orange juice. Countries such as Italy, after all, import a significant share of their produce from the South American nation (as well as from Mexico and Turkey).

At the same time, across European fields, the extreme heat and intense rainfall of recent months are causing a historic collapse in potato harvests, also drastically reducing the size of tubers. Belgium in particular is bearing the brunt, as the world's largest exporter of frozen chips.

Pressure also on wheat, sugar and butter production

Thermal conditions have not spared durum wheat either, and here too a reduction in availability and a consequent rise in prices is anticipated. Meanwhile, drought in pastures, high feed costs and the heat stress suffered by livestock have reduced the overall yield of fat content in milk, making it harder to produce butter and other dairy products.

Finally, sugar cane cultivation in Asia is suffering from anomalies in the monsoons, while sugar beet growing in Europe has had to contend with a lack of water during the summer. All of which will inevitably feed through, in the same way, to consumer prices.