Climate change could upend even our most deep-rooted habits. Not only will we have to contend with increasingly frequent extreme weather events and extraordinary heatwaves. Even the simple cup of espresso, which has always been present on our tables and in our offices, could become a rarity. The upheavals that the Earth's atmosphere is undergoing are already hitting global production, which over the past two years has fallen short of total consumption.

Rising heat will also encourage the spread of coffee plant diseases

The alarm was raised by the first World Forum of producing countries, held in Medellín, Colombia, from 10 to 12 July. "All nations will be affected, because coffee is particularly sensitive even to the slightest variations in temperature," Brazilian José Sette, executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) — an association bringing together 43 exporting and seven importing states — told the AFP news agency. According to the French daily 20Minutes, "cultivable areas dedicated to production could be halved as early as 2050, precisely because of the rise in average global temperature. The heat will also likely encourage the development of diseases affecting the plant, as confirmed by a 2016 report from the Australian Climate Institute."

The ICO has reported in particular that between October 2015 and September 2016, the total quantity of coffee consumed worldwide amounted to 151.3 million 60-kilogram bags. That is 3.3 million bags more than the total production achieved over the same period. For now, stocks have not undergone major changes because the shortfall has been offset by overproduction recorded in previous years.

Up to 60 per cent less land in Ethiopia. Production declining in Brazil

"But in this way we will not be able to meet global demand," said Roberto Velez of the National Federation of Coffee Growers in Colombia. One of the leading exporters, Brazil, harvested 51.4 million bags in 2016, but a decline of 11.3 per cent is already forecast for 2017. Similarly, Colombia is expecting a contraction of 14 million bags.

In Ethiopia, arabica variety plants, which require relatively mild temperatures, will have between 40 and 60 per cent less land suitable for their growth in the coming decades compared to today, as confirmed by a study published in June in the scientific journal Nature. Moreover, it is easy to see that, given the fact that the majority of production is concentrated in just a few nations, a single extreme event in one of those territories can jeopardise supply across the entire world, as well as trigger a sharp rise in prices.