The production of biofuels from palm oil and soybean oil is constantly increasing. 7 million hectares of forests are at risk, with emissions equivalent to 2,600 coal-fired power plants.
The quantity of biofuels derived from palm oil and soy could increase up to sixfold by 2030. Seven million hectares of forests are at risk, including up to 3.6 million hectares of peatland areas. Additional CO2 emissions could range between 4 and 11.7 billion tonnes — equivalent, in the worst case, to 2,600 coal-fired power plants.
These are the findings of the latest report by Rainforest Foundation Norway, entitled Biofuel to the fire — obtained as a national exclusive by LifeGate — which highlights how projections for the production of plant-based biofuels (estimated on the basis of demand growth between 2015 and 2018) are absolutely alarming, if demand is not contained.
The worst-case scenario envisages that, within ten years, total demand for palm oil to power aircraft and vehicle engines could reach around 61 million tonnes — much to the dismay of those who think Nutella is the only culprit. Soybean oil as a biofuel will reach 41 million tonnes, nearly 75 per cent of current overall production — a decidedly significant increase.
Behind this explosion in demand for biofuels lies the growing appetite from the aviation sector, today the leading "consumer" with high deforestation risk, and the thirst for non-fossil fuels from countries such as Indonesia and Brazil, which want to secure their energy independence — betting everything on palm oil and, where that is not possible (as in Europe) or where there is an abundance, on soy.
"The data in the Biofuel to the fire report show that eliminating palm oil from production is not enough," explains Veronica Aneris of Transport&Environment. "Soy, already widely used in livestock farming, together with palm oil by-products such as Pome (Palm oil mill effluent) or Pfad, palm fatty acid distillate, is rapidly gaining significant market share, including in Italy. It is no longer just palm oil, therefore, that is the primary cause of deforestation for biofuel production."
Although subsidies for palm oil-based biofuels will be phased out by the European Union by 2030, demand in the rest of the world continues to expand, particularly in Asia. At the same time, demand for soy-based fuels is surging across the Americas.
The impact on the climate could be devastating. Currently, global CO2 emissions from deforestation amount to around 11.5 billion tonnes — more than the emissions currently produced by China from burning fossil fuels. According to the Rainforest Foundation report, if the high fossil fuel demand forecast were to be confirmed, increased palm oil production would result in deforestation-related emissions of 9.1 billion tonnes, while soy would account for 2.6 billion.
These increases in consumption will also affect Italy. Eni, the leading biofuel producer, will continue to produce biodiesel from palm oil until 2023, replacing it with used cooking oil "and other vegetable oils". "The suspicion is that palm oil will be replaced by soy and by-products such as Pome and Pfad," explains Andrea Poggio, head of transport at Legambiente and promoter of the #unpienodipalle campaign. "As the report underlines, this would have an even greater impact on the climate than oil, while airlines could count emissions reductions in their CO2 accounts by using supposedly 'green' biofuels."
In addition to scrapping subsidies, environmental associations are calling for all plant-based biofuels with a high impact on forests and derived from them to be gradually phased out of the market. "Airlines must focus their attention on biofuels derived from waste and production residues," concludes Poggio, "otherwise the cure could be worse than the disease."