By rail and by sea, China wants to consolidate its hegemony in global commercial transport. Also by exploiting global warming and knocking on Europe's door: Italy.
The Arctic could become the new Mediterranean. The icy surface of the Arctic Ocean has in fact become, as a result of climate change, a route that year after year allows the passage of ever larger commercial cargoes. It is estimated that between 2010 and 2017 the goods transported along this route rose from 100,000 to over one million tonnes. Merchant ships pass through here for trade between China, Europe and North America, and Chinese president Xi Jinping has long seen in these waters a "new Silk Road".
Around eight thousand kilometres of maritime, river and overland routes connected the Roman Empire to the Far East in what is historically known as the Silk Road. Today the government in Beijing wants to renew and consolidate this ancient communications network and since 2013 has been working on the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to build future commercial networks both by rail and by sea, in order to speed up and cut costs in commercial transport. Chinese investments amount to around 500 billion euros, spread across the construction and upgrading of infrastructure in the countries touched by these "new Silk Roads".
The new directions of this investment are therefore being mapped out, with the aim of developing commercial relations with the Middle East and the countries of the Mediterranean basin, via the Suez Canal, and by plotting new northern routes to reach northern Europe and the United States more easily. Throughout all of this, China is determined to forge strategic partnerships, and in this regard an agreement with Italy could be signed shortly.
A first step was taken in 2018 with the establishment of the Task force China: within this partnership aimed at strengthening economic relations with China, the Italian government's interest in the Belt and Road Initiative was made official, but attention now turns to the official visit to Rome by president Xi Jinping, expected on 22 and 23 March, when the signing of the memorandum is scheduled, in which Italy is expected to confirm its openness towards the Asian giant. On the table could be Italy's port infrastructure — in particular the port of Trieste — along with the redevelopment of the ports of Taranto and Gioia Tauro.
The initial statements by the undersecretary at the Ministry of Economic Development Michele Geraci on the imminent agreement have, however, prompted a degree of scepticism on the part of European Union institutions and more open irritation from the United States.
In particular, it is the spokesman for the American National Security Council Garrett Marquis who expresses reservations about what the actual benefits for the Italian economy might be, casting doubt on the transparency of these bilateral agreements with respect to international standards. What emerges from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is concern about the durability of the traditional alliance between the United States and Italy, which by signing this agreement would be acquiescing to a form of Chinese-driven globalisation.
Xi Jinping, meanwhile, is working on multiple fronts and, with his Belt and Road Initiative, makes no secret of China's intentions to get a firm foothold in the Arctic. How? By designing and concluding agreements with other Arctic Council states for the construction of infrastructure in exchange for access to natural resources. The agreement with Finland is among the most promising: in recent weeks, the two presidents reaffirmed their desire to make the best possible use of the China Railway Express and other facilities to increase bilateral trade and "jointly build the Polar Silk Road".
The prospect of exploiting a new transpolar route was officially formalised at the start of 2018 with the publication of the first White Paper on the Arctic by the Chinese government, outlining an infrastructure plan worth around 1,000 billion dollars in land and sea connections between China and Europe. For this project to be feasible, however, the planet needs to warm further.
"All the available forecast models on global warming," explains Carlo Barbante, palaeoclimatologist at the Ca' Foscari University of Venice, "show a reduction in sea ice in the coming years. As early as 2040 the maritime zone will be ice-free, and this speed is due to the phenomenon of Arctic amplification: one degree of increase in the global average temperature over the last century corresponds to an increase in Arctic temperature of around three degrees. Here, processes occur that are linked to feedback factors which tend to amplify a significant event: when sea ice contracts due to rising temperatures, the 'white' surface capable of reflecting solar radiation shrinks, thereby freeing up areas of sea that absorb more heat.
As well as having warmer oceans, as the ice retreats the layer of permafrost melts, in turn releasing greenhouse gases. Here, these processes have rapid and devastating effects: rivers and lakes are now part of the Greenlandic landscape during the summer months, replacing the ice."
The polar route, projected to become viable around 2040, would thus become the third maritime route for China (in addition to the routes via the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal), which today holds 90 per cent of global maritime transport, and would represent a considerable saving in terms of sailing times and transport costs. But there is more: the White Paper makes no secret of the intention to access Arctic natural resources, such as gas, rare minerals and fish.
The Arctic region today holds 25 per cent of the total hydrocarbons present on the planet: an economic value of 17 trillion dollars, equivalent to the American economy according to estimates by the collective Arctic Times Project. Greenland in particular sits atop reserves of uranium, precious minerals and oil: it is no coincidence that it is in the south of the country that China is investing in the largest open-pit uranium mine, which is vital for the Chinese technology industry. And where further pollution will soon be generated.
Norway, too, is taking part in the race and is preparing to become a key hub for ports and airports along these new routes. Furthermore, the "home of cod" is opening up to a new commercial outlook: as waters warm, new fish are moving in search of ideal climates, populating the northern seas with new species that will soon create wealth for the region's fishing market.
Russia, however, is not ready to relinquish its crown as an Arctic power: 60 per cent of Russian GDP derives from the Arctic (starting with gas exploitation), and 12 ports have been built along the coastal areas in 10 years. At the western borders of the Barents Sea, a silent new Cold War between NATO and Russia is playing out: close to the Norwegian border, Russia has deployed around 1,800 nuclear warheads, and NATO is present in the Barents Sea with a spy ship monitoring what happens on Russian territory around the clock.
But while the melting of the ice seems an unstoppable process, some are taking steps to preserve what is, to all intents and purposes, a heritage of humanity. Unesco is among those backing the Ice Memory project, a genuine "library of ice". Italy and France are co-founders of an international collaboration to create an archive of ice cores extracted from various glaciers, which will be preserved in Antarctica — a land of peace and research.
"To face the future, it is important to know the past. In Antarctica, for example, this technique allows us to go back and study the climate of 800,000 years ago," explains Barbante, one of the founders of the Ice Memory project. "Thanks to this material, it is possible to understand the oscillations of glacial cycles and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air over time. These 'archives', especially those at low and middle latitudes, are however destined to disappear: in the next 50 years, the glaciers of the Alps at 3,800 metres will in all likelihood no longer exist, while at greater altitudes the surface meltwater could soon percolate deep down and 'contaminate' the older layers.
Alps, Tibet, Himalayas, Kilimanjaro, polar regions: cores from all over the world could go to make up this Antarctic laboratory, which will serve future generations of scientists in reconstructing and extracting ever more useful information in the fight against climate change." In an archive, one hopes, we will find the right clues for the solutions that will save us.
