It has long been argued that one of the main barriers to the widespread adoption of electric cars is their purchase price. It is true, as Sergio Savaresi of the Politecnico di Milano argues, that even today the break-even point between total income and expenditure is reached within the first seven years of purchase; but it is undeniable that the immediate financial outlay acts as a deterrent for large segments of potential buyers. Now, however, research by BloombergNef commissioned by the European federation Transport & Environment outlines a decidedly different future scenario.

It will start in 2025 with light commercial vehicles

Whether city cars, large SUVs or light commercial vehicles, by 2027 at the latest electric vehicles will have a lower price than those with fossil fuel engines, even in the absence of preferential taxation or any financial purchase incentives. Specifically, the first segment in which this overtaking will occur will be light commercial vehicles, as early as 2025.

The following year, electric saloons (C and D segments) and SUVs of all sizes will follow. The last to reach parity, in six years' time, will be the smallest cars (B segment). The turning point will be the collapse in the price of new batteries, which is expected to fall by 58 per cent by 2030 compared to ten years earlier. As a result, the vehicles for which battery costs have the greatest impact, such as light vans, will become more economically advantageous in a shorter time. BloombergNef analysts warn, however, that the reduction in production costs — and the consequent increase in consumer uptake — are closely linked to growth in the production volumes and sales of low-environmental-impact vehicles.

Electric cars: the push from EU emissions targets

According to the study, in the absence of more stringent targets to incentivise the transition, battery electric cars will reach a market share of 85 per cent and vans 83 per cent by 2035; polluting vehicles would continue to be sold for longer than necessary, and this would prevent the EU from meeting the decarbonisation target it has set for 2050. For this reason, Transport & Environment stresses the importance of introducing binding intermediate targets for 2027, in addition to those already envisaged for 2025 and 2030, before reaching the final target calling for the end of sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035.

"The research," explains Veronica Aneris, Italy director of Transport & Environment, "shows how electric vehicles will soon be a reality within the financial reach of all new buyers. The Italian government must facilitate this historic transition, on the one hand by supporting stricter CO2 reduction targets for manufacturers in Europe and introducing 2035 as the end date for sales of internal combustion engines, and on the other by accelerating the uptake of electric vehicles in the Italian fleet." With the calendar in hand, June could represent an important deadline: the European Commission could set a date beyond which it will no longer be possible to sell fossil fuel cars. To persuade the EU executive to move in this direction, in recent days 27 major European organisations signed an appeal calling for 2035 to be set as the cut-off date for the sale of new diesel, petrol and hybrid vehicles.