Rome is among the cities with the highest increase in average temperature over the past 60 years. Milan is also getting warmer and warmer, as are many municipalities in Valtellina, such as Sondrio and Livigno. Taranto, Brindisi and Reggio Calabria are among the warmest in the South. Turin and Florence, by contrast, have remained almost unchanged, even if maximum peaks are rising.

This is revealed by a new database produced by Copernicus, the European centre for the collection and processing of environmental satellite data, and Ecmwf, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, processed by the European data journalism network, obtained as an exclusive national preview by LifeGate. From 1 January 1961 to 31 December 2018, it is possible to discover, municipality by municipality, how much average temperatures in Italy have risen.

The methodological note on the data processing is available here. Search for your city, your municipality.

The largest increases in average temperatures in Italy

Italy's capital, Rome, has recorded an increase of as much as 3.65 degrees Celsius (°C) in temperatures over the past 57 years, while Milan has seen an increase of 3.34 degrees. At provincial level, the five warmest are Rome (3.13°C), Brindisi (3.09°C), Sondrio (3.03°C), Latina (3.01°C), and Reggio Calabria. The average increases in many Alpine municipalities are far from reassuring, reinforcing data from the National Research Council (Cnr) showing that at high altitude, between 1,500 and 2,500 metres, days with minimum temperatures below zero have fallen by an average of 10 per cent since the 1970s. More modest increases, by contrast, for Florence (1.61°C) and Turin (0.76°C).

Island areas, Tuscany, lower Piedmont and the Adriatic coast — in particular the Romagna stretch — show little in the way of temperature change. The five provinces that have been least affected by the impact of global warming on average temperatures — though not on heat peaks — are Trapani (1.22°C), Sassari (1.24°C), Pisa (1.26°C), Siracusa (1.38°C), Ravenna (1.34°C), and Rimini (1.4°C). These are average increases, which must not be confused with heat peaks, which are becoming ever more frequent.

Italy is already beyond the Paris Agreement targets

It is clear that large cities such as Rome and Milan are the most exposed to rising temperatures. "The figure reported is close to the analyses carried out by Arpa, the Regional Environmental Protection Agency," explains Piero Pelizzaro, chief resilience officer of the municipality of Milan. "Overall, since pre-industrial levels, the average temperature in Milan has risen by 2 degrees, with an overall increase in temperature especially during the winter period. This is why the municipality is committed to working to mitigate and adapt to climate change."

But what do these increases mean? According to recent research by the Ipcc, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which drew on more than 6,000 scientific references and was prepared by 91 authors from around the world at the behest of governments, the global average warming (that is, the sum of all recorded average temperatures) must be kept to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels — meaning the period between 1850 and 1900.

The minimum target of the Paris Agreement on climate provides for an increase "well below" 2 degrees. Although these figures are not directly comparable, they indicate that Italy is already well above the level of temperature increase considered safe for preventing the most severe effects of global warming.

How to reduce mortality from heatwaves in cities

For Caterina Sarfatti, who leads the global Inclusive climate action programme at C40, an organisation of mayors of nearly 100 major cities worldwide, "the increase in heat has a particularly significant impact in cities. Already today, 200 million people in 350 cities around the world are affected, and the figure is set to grow."

The costs are high: urban heatwaves could cost cities up to 11% of GDP by 2100, with sharp increases in hospital admissions and higher summer mortality.Caterina Sarfatti, C40

According to an article published in 2016 in EBioMedicine, a one-degree rise in temperature is correlated (bearing in mind that correlation is not direct causation) with a 3.4 per cent increase in cardiovascular mortality, a 3.6 per cent increase in respiratory mortality and a 1.4 per cent increase in cerebrovascular mortality. A study by Bmj Heart, a British journal on heart disease, has linked heatwaves to a 6 per cent increase in hospital admissions for coronary artery disease. Not to mention the widespread heat stress affecting outdoor workers and the spread of insects as vectors of infectious diseases.

Networks such as Cool cities have been established for this reason, working on best practices for cooling cities. "First and foremost, risk must be monitored through early warning systems, providing accessible information, particularly to the most vulnerable citizens: the elderly, outdoor workers, and disadvantaged neighbourhoods," Sarfatti continues. "Once the risk has been identified, communities and urban services must be mobilised to support those most at risk, by limiting their exposure to heat or helping them with everyday tasks."

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Infrastructure measures can range from green roofs to white roofing — that is, painting rooftops white — modifying road surfaces with heat-mitigating materials, increasing urban vegetation and planting trees, and installing canopies and structures that reduce overheating.

"Milan has equipped itself with an urban reforestation and de-paving plan, replacing asphalt with green surfaces in order to mitigate rising temperatures," Pelizzaro explains. "We also have a new climate impact reduction index that obliges anyone constructing new buildings or refurbishing existing ones to comply with new building standards that include heat mitigation measures and emissions reductions." The hope is that many municipalities across Italy will adopt similar measures as soon as possible.