At dawn on 7 October, Palestinian militants from Hamas launched an unprecedented armed attack against Israel. 7 October was also the birthday of Russian president Vladimir Putin. And there are those ready to bet that the head of the Kremlin could not have received a better gift: with the outbreak of this new conflict, the attention of Nato, the world and Russian public opinion shifts away from Ukraine to the Middle East, to Moscow's advantage. And the blame for this new war, according to the Kremlin's narrative, is to be laid at the United States' door.

Moscow's reactions to the war between Israel and Hamas

Putin's comment on the massacre was a long time coming — three days. A reaction that probably reflects the complex and sometimes contradictory diplomatic relationships through which Moscow, in recent decades, has sought to establish solid ties with Israel while simultaneously supporting the Palestinian cause.

Putin's comment finally came on 10 October, during the reception of Iraqi prime minister Mohammed al-Sudani at the Kremlin: the worsening of the crisis between Palestinians and Israelis, Putin said, is "a clear example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East." In his view, Washington did nothing to find a satisfactory compromise and failed to take into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people. "I am referring above all to the need to implement the United Nations Security Council decision on the creation of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state," Putin said.

In the meantime, the most varied reactions have alternated across the Russian press and social networks, ranging from calls for diplomacy, support for Palestine and accusations against both sides, to criticism of the West and even sarcastic comments directed at Russian compatriots who, in order to escape conscription and the war in Ukraine, had moved to Israel — only to find themselves under bombardment there too.

Among all the statements, the calls for peace and a ceasefire made by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Mikhail Bogdanov stand out. Invocations that have something surreal about them, given that their own country continues to rain bombs on Ukraine — and has been doing so for more than a year and a half.

Meanwhile, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev claimed, without providing any evidence, that Ukraine had handed Hamas militants the Western-made weapons used in the attack on Israel.

Russia and the new world order

The new conflict between Hamas and Israel fits into the broader picture of what has already been called the Great War. In this context, and with the definition of new alliances, after an initial apparent hesitation Russia has decided which side it is on: Moscow will receive Palestinian president Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) for a visit. The date has not yet been announced, but it will be "quite soon," as Russian presidential foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov made known.

The balance of power is being redrawn, and it is as though the scattered flashpoints in various corners of the world are flaring up again. First Ukraine, then Nagorno-Karabakh, now the Middle East. According to Russian international politics expert Alexander Baunov, Putin has in a sense succeeded in his aim of changing the global order: he managed it not through victory in Ukraine, as he had hoped, but through the use of war and violence as a tool to redraw borders and reshape balances of power.

"War is certainly not a new thing and Putin did not invent it. But it is as though Russia had once again made it acceptable, using it moreover not on its own territory but on the territory of a neighbouring country. Putin has made war possible again."

Alexander Baunov

Even in the twenty-first century. Even in Europe, where conflicts had seemed consigned to history books.