Armenia is writing a new chapter of history. This Southern Caucasus country of around three million inhabitants, a former Soviet republic, is going through changes of potentially epoch-making significance. The first concerns a possible peace treaty with neighbouring Azerbaijan. The other, a possible rapprochement with the European Union. Both are difficult goals to achieve. But they could radically alter the balance of the entire region.

The agreement on the peace treaty text

On 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia announced that they had reached an agreement on the text of the peace treaty, which has not yet been signed.

The two countries have been at war for over three decades over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh, in Armenian), which has always been at the centre of dominations and conquests, historically inhabited predominantly by Armenians, but assigned by Stalin to Azerbaijan in 1921. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Armenian majority, with the support of the neighbouring Armenian state, began to claim independence from Azerbaijan and reunification with Yerevan.

In the early 1990s, tensions erupted into the first war over Nagorno-Karabakh, which caused more than 30,000 casualties and led the Armenian majority to declare the birth of the Republic of Artsakh, never recognised by the international community or by Baku. After the second war over Nagorno-Karabakh, fought in the autumn of 2020 and concluded with a ceasefire that Russia was supposed to oversee, in September 2023 Azerbaijan, in a lightning offensive, took back full control of the territory, triggering a complete exodus of the Armenian population that various international observers and the European Union described as ethnic cleansing carried out by Azerbaijan.

Now, with the agreement reached on the text of the peace treaty, reconciliation between Baku and Yerevan has never been closer.

Why the signing of the treaty is still a long way off

After the initial enthusiasm for the news, a closer analysis reveals that the signing of the peace treaty is still a very long way off. "In my view, the steps needed to actually reach the signing of the treaty are many, lengthy and full of obstacles," Cesare Figari Barberis, an expert in Caucasus politics and post-doctoral researcher at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, explained to LifeGate. From what has been reported, the text of the agreement consists of seventeen points, fifteen of which had already been approved previously.

The real knot to untangle now concerns two issues, on which Armenia has evidently made significant concessions:

• the first regarding the dissolution of the so-called Minsk Group, an OSCE body led by France, Russia and the United States, created to mediate the conflict;
• the second regarding the Armenian Constitution, which contains references to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh, and would therefore need to be changed.

"According to Azerbaijan, the Armenian constitution still lays claim to Karabakh, so the matter cannot be considered definitively settled until it is amended," says Cesare Figari Barberis. "But changing the constitution is not straightforward: it would require a popular referendum, which would not be held before 2026. And it is far from certain that the Armenian population would approve it."

Until these two points are resolved, therefore, it will be difficult to see the peace treaty signed. And while Yerevan works to resolve tensions with Azerbaijan, it is simultaneously also aiming to strengthen ties with Brussels.

The project of accession to the European Union

The other potentially epoch-making change concerns Armenia's desire to join the European Union. The Armenian parliament has just approved a bill to apply for EU membership. The text was passed on its second and final reading with 64 votes in favour and seven against.

Alen Simonyan ✓ @alensimonyan

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🇦🇲🇪🇺 Minutes ago the National Assembly of the Republic of #Armenia has adopted the Law on the launch of the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union!
The bill, brought by a civil initiative, was adopted in the second reading.
A historic step!

♥ 488💬 44 26 mar 2025 · Apri su X →

This is happening at a time when Yerevan appears to be distancing itself from Moscow, its historic ally in the region, accusing it of not having done enough during the conflict with Azerbaijan. The rift began after Armenia's defeat in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and deepened following the failure of Russia and the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation to provide support during the Azerbaijani attacks of 2021 and 2022.

Russia's response was swift. "We understand that, if Armenia is drawing closer to Europe, a comprehensive review of our economic relations with the country will inevitably be necessary. Unfortunately, this will have an impact on living standards in Armenia, something we would truly like to avoid," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk said.

A country still dependent on Moscow

Despite the efforts of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to politically steer the country towards the West, Armenia remains economically dependent on Russia, with a significantly higher volume of trade with Moscow than with Brussels.

Russia is indeed Yerevan's primary trading partner, and in 2023 Armenia exported goods worth 3.4 billion dollars to Russia. Moreover, although slightly declining, in 2023 nearly 70 per cent of remittances flowing into the country came from Russia.

Added to this is the fact that Armenia is currently a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), together with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and any accession to the EU would require withdrawal from this economic union.

Why Armenia's entry into the EU is unlikely

"Armenia's accession to the European Union depends on three key factors," Cesare Figari Barberis, an expert in Caucasus politics, commented to LifeGate. "First, on Yerevan's political will, which nonetheless appears strong, and I expect it to continue for as long as Prime Minister Pashinyan or his party remains in power: the distancing from Russia is by now clear. However, if the more pro-Russian opposition were to win, a rapprochement with Moscow could occur over the longer term. Second, on the lengthy and complex bureaucratic process: Armenia would need to implement structural reforms to align with EU standards, a path that requires time and solid parliamentary majorities. Third, on the EU's own willingness to welcome Armenia, which at present appears to be absent.

Georgia is not close to joining the European Union either: even before Tbilisi's tilt towards Russia, when the ruling Georgian Dream party was strongly pro-European, Brussels did little to bring Georgia into the EU. In my view, Georgia and Armenia will never join the European Union unless Turkey does too: only then would territorial continuity be established between Greece, Turkey, Georgia and Armenia. Otherwise, having Georgia and Armenia so isolated, in the Caucasus, with a border with Iran to boot, would be somewhat complicated. Finally, Armenia continues to be perceived by some European countries as too closely tied to Russia — an obstacle that could make its accession unlikely in the short and medium term.