2020 could turn out to be the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Although we are still only in April, NOAA – the American agency for oceanic and atmospheric observation – has already published its first forecasts on the possible trajectory of average global temperature during the current year. The conclusion: if the trend were to remain unchanged, "there is a 75 per cent probability that 2020 will end with an all-time record".

350 dot org ✓ @350

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There is a 75% chance 2020 will set a record for the warmest year since instrument records began in 1880.

This will bring real life consequences for people everywhere. We have to step up the fight. fal.cn/37Ibs

♥ 20💬 3 23 apr 2020 · Apri su X →

There is a 99% chance 2020 will rank among the 5 hottest years on record

But even if the year were not to prove the hottest ever, there is a 99 per cent chance it will rank among the top five in history. A forecast that is, in fact, in line with the European service Copernicus. The latter has already highlighted that in March 2020 global average temperature data were particularly high, second in history only to March 2016.

Nor will lockdown change anything. While it is true that greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to contract by 5.5 per cent worldwide on an annual basis, the concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere will not decrease. Far more would be needed, and over a far longer period of time, for lockdown to have any impact on the Earth's climate. Climate inertia means that the effects of the gases we release persist over many decades.

Copernicus ECMWF @CopernicusECMWF

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📢March #temperature highlights from #Copernicus #C3S:

🌡️Globally, it was on a par with the second and third warmest Marches in our record
🌡️In Europe, well above average around the Baltic sea and in the east but average or below in the west

More detail➡️bit.ly/2wR3789

♥ 54 6 apr 2020 · Apri su X →

Not to mention that the reduction in emissions resulting from the coronavirus crisis will only be temporary. Indeed, the risk is that the recovery will be pursued "at all costs" – even setting aside the guardrails that have so laboriously been put in place to protect the climate.

Read also: 12 anni per agire o il clima impazzirà

António Guterres's appeal for a sustainable recovery

It is precisely for this reason that United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres published an appeal in the New York Times, in which he recalls that the planet is on the verge of facing a "devastating" disruption of the climate. He therefore urges governments to impose a "more sustainable" restart, which would moreover be beneficial to the global economy.

António Guterres ✓ @antonioguterres

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Addressing the climate crisis and #COVID19 simultaneously requires a response stronger than any seen before to safeguard the the planet and protect people everywhere.

My piece in the @nytimes.

nytimes.com/2020/04/28/opi…

♥ 1446💬 77 28 apr 2020 · Apri su X →

In concrete terms, Guterres proposed a series of actions for nations around the world: increased public investment in "decarbonisation", an end to subsidies for fossil fuels, the introduction of a "carbon tax", no bailouts for polluting industries, and the integration of climate risks into investments. The ball is now in governments' court.